Geopolitical··Severity 8
Kiev unable to carry out attacks on Russian airfields without US intel — military expert
"This is possible and conceivable only with satellite communications support," Guillaume Ansel said
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
74%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: A public statement by Ukrainian leadership demanding immediate US action against Russian airfields., Increased frequency of high, profile statements from Western leaders expressing support for increased military aid to Ukraine., NATO member states publicly discussing the possibility of deploying fighter jets or long, range missiles to Ukr
B
19%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: A public statement by Ukrainian leadership demanding immediate US action against Russian airfields., Increased frequency of high, profile statements from Western leaders expressing support for increased military aid to Ukraine., NATO member states publicly discussing the possibility of deploying fighter jets or long, range missiles to Ukr
C
7%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: A public statement by Ukrainian leadership demanding immediate US action against Russian airfields., Increased frequency of high, profile statements from Western leaders expressing support for increased military aid to Ukraine., NATO member states publicly discussing the possibility of deploying fighter jets or long, range missiles to Ukr
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