Chief of Zelensky office briefs Kellogg on Russia-Ukraine talks

During his conversation with Keith Kellogg, Andrey Yermak also raised the issue of military assistance to Kiev A: Escalation (model probability 44%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Yermak's briefing to Kellogg triggers heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia escalates military activity near Ukrainian borders, increasing the risk of direct conflict. Tensions escalate further as Western nations provide increased military support to Ukraine, leading to a potential escalation in sanctions against Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Russian military presence on the Ukrainian border (within 7 days), 2) Public statements from high-ranking officials within Russia and NATO expressing heightened concerns about Ukraine's future security. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The briefing is met with diplomatic efforts by both sides, aimed at de-escalation. Negotiations continue on the potential for a ceasefire and humanitarian corr B: Status Quo (model probability 41%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Yermak's briefing to Kellogg triggers heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia escalates military activity near Ukrainian borders, increasing the risk of direct conflict. Tensions escalate further as Western nations provide increased military support to Ukraine, leading to a potential escalation in sanctions against Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Russian military presence on the Ukrainian border (within 7 days), 2) Public statements from high-ranking officials within Russia and NATO expressing heightened concerns about Ukraine's future security. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The briefing is met with diplomatic efforts by both sides, aimed at de-escalation. Negotiations continue on the potential for a ceasefire and humanitarian corr C: De-escalation (model probability 15%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Yermak's briefing to Kellogg triggers heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia escalates military activity near Ukrainian borders, increasing the risk of direct conflict. Tensions escalate further as Western nations provide increased military support to Ukraine, leading to a potential escalation in sanctions against Russia. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Russian military presence on the Ukrainian border (within 7 days), 2) Public statements from high-ranking officials within Russia and NATO expressing heightened concerns about Ukraine's future security. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The briefing is met with diplomatic efforts by both sides, aimed at de-escalation. Negotiations continue on the potential for a ceasefire and humanitarian corr

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation