Geopolitical··Severity 6
Iran’s uranium enrichment secures independence, peaceful atom — supreme leader
Ali Khamenei added that the US and other countries are not interested in Iran's progress and have put forward conditions presupposing a complete halt of uranium enrichment on Iranian territory
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
45%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by increased rhetoric from both sides regarding potential military action. Time horizon: 30
B
40%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by increased rhetoric from both sides regarding potential military action. Time horizon: 30
C
15%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by increased rhetoric from both sides regarding potential military action. Time horizon: 30
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