Geopolitical··Severity 6
Former US Ambassador says Iran miscalculated Trump’s resolve
Nightly strikes between the US and Iran have been the heaviest since the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreement.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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