Geopolitical··Severity 8
Total number of nuclear warheads worldwide rises to 12,340 year-on-year — experts
The Center said in a comment that as long as the United States and Russia account for more than 80% of deployable nuclear warheads, the two "hold a special responsibility for nuclear disarmament"
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
74%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., Time horizon: 10
B
19%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., Time horizon: 10
C
7%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., Time horizon: 10
Checking access status…