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geopolitical··severity 8

Общее количество ядерных боеголовок в мире выросло до 12 340 в годовом исчислении — эксперты

В комментарии Центра говорится, что, поскольку на долю США и России приходится более 80% развертываемых ядерных боеголовок, они «несут особую ответственность за ядерное разоружение».

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Center's statement regarding US/Russia nuclear responsibility triggers heightened tensions between these nations and potential proxy conflicts in regions with existing nuclear-related tensions. This escalates into a direct confrontation, possibly involving military exercises or deployments near disputed territories. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The global community reacts to the news with a mix of concern and apathy. Some nations may initiate internal dialogue about nuclear disarmament, while others focus on their own national security concerns and p

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., * **Time horizon:** 10, 20 days
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Center's statement regarding US/Russia nuclear responsibility triggers heightened tensions between these nations and potential proxy conflicts in regions with existing nuclear-related tensions. This escalates into a direct confrontation, possibly involving military exercises or deployments near disputed territories. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The global community reacts to the news with a mix of concern and apathy. Some nations may initiate internal dialogue about nuclear disarmament, while others focus on their own national security concerns and p

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., * **Time horizon:** 10, 20 days
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Center's statement regarding US/Russia nuclear responsibility triggers heightened tensions between these nations and potential proxy conflicts in regions with existing nuclear-related tensions. This escalates into a direct confrontation, possibly involving military exercises or deployments near disputed territories. * Confirmation indicators: Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The global community reacts to the news with a mix of concern and apathy. Some nations may initiate internal dialogue about nuclear disarmament, while others focus on their own national security concerns and p

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both the US and Russia about their respective nuclear capabilities, followed by increased diplomatic tension and military posturing on the ground., * **Time horizon:** 10, 20 days

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