Geopolitical··Severity 6
#Ukraine's controversial top general replaced amid mass #protests
#Ukraine's top general Oleksander #Syrsky is being replaced by general Mikhailo #Dapraty after days of #protests demanding his departure. Syrsky was accused of having forced the popular #defence minister Mikhailo #Fedorov out as he was reticent to engage with reforms to modernise the #army.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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