Geopolitical··Severity 8
Why Mali’s northern conflict has entered a dangerous new phase
A separatist–al-Qaeda alliance has shifted the balance of power in northern Mali and complicated efforts to end the war.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
57%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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