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Geopolitical··Severity 8

U.N. and Congolese Troops Struggle to Halt Lightning Rebel Attack

Aid workers estimate as many as 300,000 people are fleeing advances by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, which has taken two strategic towns on the approaches to Goma over the past several days.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

67%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: WSJ World

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