← Scenarios catalogue
Social··Severity 6

China, Philippines should avoid South China Sea ‘miscalculation’: top diplomats

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Philippine counterpart in Manila on Wednesday, with both sides highlighting the need for “reducing the risk of miscalculation” and maintaining stability in the South China Sea. The meeting on the sidelines of the Asean foreign ministers’ gathering marked the first formal talks between the top diplomats since Maria Theresa Lazaro assumed office in July last year. It also came days after fresh tensions in the disputed waters, with Chinese coastguard and...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

25%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Checking access status…