Crimean bridge unaffected by Kiev’s attack, Kremlin spokesman says

According to Dmitry Peskov, the bridge is operational A: Escalation (model probability 49%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The escalation chain begins with heightened tensions due to continued Russian military presence in Crimea and increased Ukrainian attacks on critical infrastructure within Russia's borders. This leads to a rapid increase in NATO military deployments in Eastern Europe, particularly near the Black Sea region. Tensions escalate further as both sides engage in a series of targeted cyberattacks against each other, potentially disrupting vital infrastructure and supply chains. Within 7 days, this escalation could lead to direct armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with increased risk of broader geopolitical instability. - Increased NATO military deployments near the Black Sea region (e.g., naval exercises or troop movements). - Reports of a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure in Russia. - Pu B: Status Quo (model probability 37%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The escalation chain begins with heightened tensions due to continued Russian military presence in Crimea and increased Ukrainian attacks on critical infrastructure within Russia's borders. This leads to a rapid increase in NATO military deployments in Eastern Europe, particularly near the Black Sea region. Tensions escalate further as both sides engage in a series of targeted cyberattacks against each other, potentially disrupting vital infrastructure and supply chains. Within 7 days, this escalation could lead to direct armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with increased risk of broader geopolitical instability. - Increased NATO military deployments near the Black Sea region (e.g., naval exercises or troop movements). - Reports of a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure in Russia. - Pu C: De-escalation (model probability 14%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The escalation chain begins with heightened tensions due to continued Russian military presence in Crimea and increased Ukrainian attacks on critical infrastructure within Russia's borders. This leads to a rapid increase in NATO military deployments in Eastern Europe, particularly near the Black Sea region. Tensions escalate further as both sides engage in a series of targeted cyberattacks against each other, potentially disrupting vital infrastructure and supply chains. Within 7 days, this escalation could lead to direct armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with increased risk of broader geopolitical instability. - Increased NATO military deployments near the Black Sea region (e.g., naval exercises or troop movements). - Reports of a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure in Russia. - Pu

Crimean bridge unaffected by Kiev’s attack, Kremlin spokesman says

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation