Ukrainian army retreating from Komar community in western Donetsk region

The Ukrainian military tried to deploy reserves to that community but most of them were destroyed by Russia’s air strikes, the source added A: Escalation (model probability 74%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, Russia increases air strikes on Ukrainian military positions in the Komar community, leading to a significant escalation of hostilities in the Donetsk region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increase in Russian air raid warnings within 3 miles of Komar community 2. Ukraine's response with increased artillery fire towards Russian positions 3. Confirmation from Ukrainian officials that reserves were destroyed Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 10-14 days, a ceasefire is negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, allowing for the withdrawal of remaining Ukrainian forces from Komar community. Confirmation indicators: 1. Announcement from Ukrainian President's office about ceasefire talks 2. Confirmation from Russian officials that they are committed to a peaceful resolution 3. Observation of reduced military activity in the region B: Status Quo (model probability 19%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, Russia increases air strikes on Ukrainian military positions in the Komar community, leading to a significant escalation of hostilities in the Donetsk region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increase in Russian air raid warnings within 3 miles of Komar community 2. Ukraine's response with increased artillery fire towards Russian positions 3. Confirmation from Ukrainian officials that reserves were destroyed Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 10-14 days, a ceasefire is negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, allowing for the withdrawal of remaining Ukrainian forces from Komar community. Confirmation indicators: 1. Announcement from Ukrainian President's office about ceasefire talks 2. Confirmation from Russian officials that they are committed to a peaceful resolution 3. Observation of reduced military activity in the region C: De-escalation (model probability 7%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, Russia increases air strikes on Ukrainian military positions in the Komar community, leading to a significant escalation of hostilities in the Donetsk region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Increase in Russian air raid warnings within 3 miles of Komar community 2. Ukraine's response with increased artillery fire towards Russian positions 3. Confirmation from Ukrainian officials that reserves were destroyed Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% In the next 10-14 days, a ceasefire is negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, allowing for the withdrawal of remaining Ukrainian forces from Komar community. Confirmation indicators: 1. Announcement from Ukrainian President's office about ceasefire talks 2. Confirmation from Russian officials that they are committed to a peaceful resolution 3. Observation of reduced military activity in the region

Ukrainian army retreating from Komar community in western Donetsk region

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation