Geopolitical··Severity 6
Romania expels Russian diplomat over alleged drone incidents in its airspace
The Romanian side handed a "firm protest" to the head of the Russian diplomatic mission
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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