Geopolitical··Severity 6
Kiev did not notify Trump about plans to attack Russian airfields — White House
When asked about the US administration’s position on Kiev’s attacks on Russian airfields, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that she would prefer the president to express it
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
54%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal declaration of support for Ukraine from NATO or a major ally, followed by an immediate Russian response (e.g., missile strikes on Ukrainian cities). 2) Increased military deployments and exercises in Eastern Europe by Russia. 3) Public statements from high, ranking officials in the US and EU indicating a potential escalation in support for Ukraine., Time horizon: 14 days to two weeks
B
34%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal declaration of support for Ukraine from NATO or a major ally, followed by an immediate Russian response (e.g., missile strikes on Ukrainian cities). 2) Increased military deployments and exercises in Eastern Europe by Russia. 3) Public statements from high, ranking officials in the US and EU indicating a potential escalation in support for Ukraine., Time horizon: 14 days to two weeks
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal declaration of support for Ukraine from NATO or a major ally, followed by an immediate Russian response (e.g., missile strikes on Ukrainian cities). 2) Increased military deployments and exercises in Eastern Europe by Russia. 3) Public statements from high, ranking officials in the US and EU indicating a potential escalation in support for Ukraine., Time horizon: 14 days to two weeks
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