Geopolitical··Severity 6
Turkish opposition leader to create breakaway party to take on Erdoğan
Move by Özgür Özel could threaten longtime Turkish leader at next election scheduled for 2028
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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