Geopolitical··Severity 6
Putin’s stance on death penalty moratorium remains firm — Kremlin spokesman
President Vladimir Putin said in late 2024 that the Russian authorities had no plans to introduce capital punishment even amid the country’s special military operation
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
48%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high, ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate., Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months
B
38%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high, ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate., Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months
C
14%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high, ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate., Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months
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