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Geopolitical··Severity 6

South Korea’s top conservative ‘a wounded lame duck’ after guilty verdict

A South Korean court’s conviction of Seoul’s mayor for illegal polling payments threatens to put an end to his presidential ambitions just weeks after he won a historic fifth term. Oh Se-hoon, the 65-year-old conservative who has led South Korea’s capital on and off for nearly two decades, was fined 10 million won (US$6,800) on Wednesday for violating the Political Funds Act ahead of the mayoral by-election in 2021. Under South Korean law, any elected official fined more than 1 million won for...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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