Geopolitical··Severity 6
Trump stuns Saudis by pinning nuclear deal to Israel ties
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia depends on the kingdom recognizing Israel -- throwing the agreement into turmoil just the day after it was signed.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Checking access status…