← Каталог сценариев
geopolitical··severity 6

Россия примет все меры для раскрытия преступлений, связанных с обстрелами аэродромов — Кремль

Дмитрий Песков заявил, что все, что необходимо сделать для раскрытия этого преступления, будет сделано

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's response to the crime on airfields escalates into increased military activity in the region. This could involve heightened patrols, increased missile testing, or a deployment of additional troops near border areas. Russia might also increase its rhetoric against the perpetrators, potentially even targeting the specific countries involved in the attacks. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin focuses on internal investigations, potentially using existing legal frameworks to address the crime. This would involve a thorough investigation into the attack

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region., * **Time horizon:** 1 to 3 weeks
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's response to the crime on airfields escalates into increased military activity in the region. This could involve heightened patrols, increased missile testing, or a deployment of additional troops near border areas. Russia might also increase its rhetoric against the perpetrators, potentially even targeting the specific countries involved in the attacks. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin focuses on internal investigations, potentially using existing legal frameworks to address the crime. This would involve a thorough investigation into the attack

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region., * **Time horizon:** 1 to 3 weeks
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's response to the crime on airfields escalates into increased military activity in the region. This could involve heightened patrols, increased missile testing, or a deployment of additional troops near border areas. Russia might also increase its rhetoric against the perpetrators, potentially even targeting the specific countries involved in the attacks. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin focuses on internal investigations, potentially using existing legal frameworks to address the crime. This would involve a thorough investigation into the attack

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and countries targeted in the airfields attack. A noticeable increase in military exercises by Russian forces in the affected region., * **Time horizon:** 1 to 3 weeks

Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?

Тарифы и подписки →