Geopolitical··Severity 6
US and Israeli leaders expected ‘swift outcome’ in Iran
New details are emerging of how US and Israeli officials believed the war on Iran would be straightforward and short.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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