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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Iranian control of Hormus Strait Rubio sets 'dangerous precedent', Rubio warns

Iranian control of Hormus Strait Rubio sets 'dangerous precedent', Rubio warns US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz would set a "dangerous precedent" with repercussions beyond the Middle East. "If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation-state can decide to control an international waterway, charge a toll, and blow up your ships if you don't pay, we have created a very dangerous precedent that will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including this region," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Southeast Asian foreign ministers.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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