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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Iran's IRGC says four vessels stopped in Hormuz in last 24 hours

Iran's IRGC says four vessels stopped in Hormuz in last 24 hours Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces have barred four ships from crossing the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, Iranian state television reports. According to the report, the ships were stopped after warning shots were fired. They were attempting to cross via the strait's southern corridor - which the IRGC has declared an "unsafe passage". The group has warned that any vessels trying to navigate "unsafe routes" through the contested waterway will be met with a "forceful response".

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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