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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Russian attack leaves gaping hole in Kyiv residential building

The BBC's Sarah Rainsford is at the scene of one of the blasts to hit Ukraine's capital overnight.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: BBC World

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