Geopolitical··Severity 6
EU ambassadors fail again to agree on 21st Russia sanctions package
The Committee of Permanent Representatives of the EU (Coreper) failed on 15 July to make a decision on adopting the EU's new, 21st package of sanctions against Russia and decided to freeze the price cap on Russian oil until 23 July while discussions continue.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
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