Geopolitical··Severity 9
US will not win Iran war from the air, Trump’s ex-defence chief warns
Mark Esper tells FT more bombing will not change Tehran’s behaviour, as president vows to step up attacks
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
75%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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