US gave Ukraine all weapons promised by Biden, former Ukrainian president says

According to Pyotr Poroshenko, Ukraine has until the end of the year to find an additional $12 billion to finance military needs A: Escalation (model probability 48%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main B: Status Quo (model probability 38%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main C: De-escalation (model probability 14%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main

US gave Ukraine all weapons promised by Biden, former Ukrainian president says

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation