США передали Украине все обещанное Байденом оружие, заявил бывший президент Украины
По словам Петра Порошенко, Украина должна до конца года найти дополнительные $12 млрд для финансирования военных нужд.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main
Status Quo
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main
De-escalation
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine lead to a renewed escalation in military activity. Russia's military presence near Ukrainian borders expands, with potential for increased aggression or even direct attacks. The US provides additional weapons support to Ukraine, but this could trigger further Russian retaliation. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Escalation of military exercises by Russia and Ukraine. 2) Increased diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, including sanctions threats. 3) Reports of increased troop deployments along the Ukrainian border. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current conflict continues with a focus on defensive measures by Ukraine. The US provides continued military aid to Ukraine, but without escalating further. Russia main
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