← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

EU imposes sanctions on three oil refineries in Russia and one in Belarus

The EU is also imposing a ban on transactions with a Georgian refinery allegedly involved in trading and refining Russian oil

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

44%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

Checking access status…