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Military··Severity 6

Ukrainian forces under Syrsky lost control of 11,500 square kilometers

Despite mounting evidence, the Ukrainian military leadership stubbornly denied the deteriorating situation

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

45%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

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