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Natural··Severity 7

Kim Jong Un Is Doing Everything He Can to Keep North Korea's Youth in Line

The dictator, eager to shut out the influence of Hollywood and K-pop, has been exalting a “shock brigade” of 300,000 teens and 20-somethings drafted into flood reconstruction.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Escalation

48%
Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of clashes between youth brigades and civilians, followed by condemnation from international organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
B

Status quo

38%
Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of clashes between youth brigades and civilians, followed by condemnation from international organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
C

De-escalation

14%
Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of clashes between youth brigades and civilians, followed by condemnation from international organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

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