Geopolitical··Severity 6
IDF issues evacuation order for Tehran ahead of strikes
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
52%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: IDF releases official statement detailing the escalation order, followed by Iranian military response with increased rhetoric or deployment of advanced weaponry.
B
35%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: IDF releases official statement detailing the escalation order, followed by Iranian military response with increased rhetoric or deployment of advanced weaponry.
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: IDF releases official statement detailing the escalation order, followed by Iranian military response with increased rhetoric or deployment of advanced weaponry.
Checking access status…