Geopolitical··Severity 9
Ukraine’s attack on Russian military airfields raises risks much higher — Kellogg
According to the US special envoy for Ukraine, the US is trying to keep risks down and prevent the conflict from expanding
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Russia announces retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure., NATO member states begin deploying additional troops to Eastern Europe.
B
15%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Russia announces retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure., NATO member states begin deploying additional troops to Eastern Europe.
C
5%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Russia announces retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure., NATO member states begin deploying additional troops to Eastern Europe.
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