Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine: Trouble at the Top? Adieu Keir, Alright Andy
In a week that’s seen rare wartime demonstrations in Ukraine protesting the ousting of Defence Minister Mykhailo (Misha) Fedorov after six months in a job in which he’s been credited with making a difference on the battlefield and in an anti-corruption drive. But he had reportedly clashed with Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, over how the war should be waged.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Checking access status…