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Geopolitical··Severity 6

France backs International Criminal Court after US sanctions judges

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Escalation

54%
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.
B

Status quo

34%
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.
C

De-escalation

13%
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.

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