Geopolitical··Severity 6
France backs International Criminal Court after US sanctions judges
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
54%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.
B
34%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Public statements from US officials expressing disapproval of France's stance., Sanctions imposed on French companies by the US Treasury Department., Increased media coverage focusing on the escalating tensions between France and the US.
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