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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia

Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia When Yemen’s Houthis threatened a “maritime embargo” on Saudi ports last week, the risk of war returning to the Arabian Peninsula - and of Bab al-Mandeb becoming the second major oil chokepoint under threat - suddenly became real. The escalation began after Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen’s Sanaa International Airport more than two weeks ago, potentially pulling the country deeper into the expanding US-Israeli war on Iran. The attack followed the Houthis’ decision to reopen Sanaa airport to direct flights from Iran . Read more: Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia University students march with Palestinian and Yemeni flags over depictions of the Israeli, US and UK flags during a pro-Houthi demonstration at Sanaa University in Yemen's capital, 22 July 2026 (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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