Geopolitical··Severity 6
Trump administration imposes sanctions on ICC judges, US Treasury says
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
52%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week: The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting regarding the sanctions., Within 2 weeks: The US faces diplomatic backlash from European allies, including a suspension of cooperation on climate change initiatives.
B
35%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week: The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting regarding the sanctions., Within 2 weeks: The US faces diplomatic backlash from European allies, including a suspension of cooperation on climate change initiatives.
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week: The UN Security Council holds an emergency meeting regarding the sanctions., Within 2 weeks: The US faces diplomatic backlash from European allies, including a suspension of cooperation on climate change initiatives.
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