Geopolitical··Severity 8
Iran says Ukrainian attack on vessel in Caspian Sea killed sailor
Foreign ministry urges EU to intervene to prevent Middle East conflict spreading beyond the region
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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