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Economic··Severity 7

Softer inflation trips rate hike forecasts, RBI hold more likely

Standard Chartered Bank had already withdrawn its August rate hike forecast following the last policy review. ET’s interactions with bank economists and a review of research reports show that most institutions now expect the RBI to remain on hold through FY27, while some believe any rate hikes would be back-ended later in the year as the central bank prioritises growth over inflation management.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

35%

Сценарии event-driven intelligence

Primary source: Economic Times

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