Geopolitical··Severity 6
Rushdi Abualouf: If Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark first credible step to ending Gaza war
While the plan is progress, it was met with little enthusiasm by Palestinians let down by many years of collapsed agreements.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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