Turkey expects Russia, Ukraine to hold another round of talks — top diplomat

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan noted that yesterday’s talks yielded major agreements, such as on another exchange of prisoners of war and the sick A: Escalation (model probability 35%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea B: Status Quo (model probability 47%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea C: De-escalation (model probability 17%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea

Turkey expects Russia, Ukraine to hold another round of talks — top diplomat

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation