← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

US strikes Iran after Trump threats over Red Sea ships

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

38%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: standard.net.au

Checking access status…