← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

Can Iran withstand new pressure from the US?

After a truce, the US has returned to war with Iran. Alex Gatopoulos looks at what’s different this time

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

Checking access status…