Geopolitical··Severity 6
Lok Sabha election 2024: Maharashtra get interesting after splits in Shiv Sena, NCP
Lok Sabha election 2024: The BJP-Shiv Sena won 41 of the 48 seats in the 2019 polls, but the Sena has split since and a vast majority of the Bal Thackeray-founded party is now allied with the BJP. The Nationalist Congress Party also split as well with Ajit Pawar joining the ruling alliance in the state, led by Eknath Shinde. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP emerged the top party with 23 seats, followed by the undivided Sena with 18.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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33%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Economic Times
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