Geopolitical··Severity 6
Trump says Musk 'went crazy' while leading DOGE
The president also threatened to terminate all government contracts with Musk’s companies and cancel all subsidies
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
46%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) Formal government announcements of legal action against SpaceX or Tesla within a week; 2) A significant drop in Tesla's share price (more than 5%) within two days.
B
39%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: 1) Formal government announcements of legal action against SpaceX or Tesla within a week; 2) A significant drop in Tesla's share price (more than 5%) within two days.
C
15%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) Formal government announcements of legal action against SpaceX or Tesla within a week; 2) A significant drop in Tesla's share price (more than 5%) within two days.
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