Tehran could weigh nuclear deal with US with Iran-based enrichment consortium — Axios

According to the report, a sixth round of talks on the Iranian nuclear program between the US president’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, could be held this weekend in a Middle Eastern country A: Escalation (model probability 34%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's nuclear program becomes more active, potentially including increased uranium enrichment and development of new reactor designs. This could lead to heightened tensions between Iran and the US, with both sides increasing military deployments in the region. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly announce a significant increase in uranium enrichment levels, followed by US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in nuclear activities. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The talks between US and Iran continue to be stalled, with no concrete agreements reached. This could lead to a continued diplomatic standoff and heightened tensions, but without major escalation. * Confirmation indicators: A statement from the Iranian government expressing their B: Status Quo (model probability 48%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's nuclear program becomes more active, potentially including increased uranium enrichment and development of new reactor designs. This could lead to heightened tensions between Iran and the US, with both sides increasing military deployments in the region. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly announce a significant increase in uranium enrichment levels, followed by US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in nuclear activities. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The talks between US and Iran continue to be stalled, with no concrete agreements reached. This could lead to a continued diplomatic standoff and heightened tensions, but without major escalation. * Confirmation indicators: A statement from the Iranian government expressing their C: De-escalation (model probability 18%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's nuclear program becomes more active, potentially including increased uranium enrichment and development of new reactor designs. This could lead to heightened tensions between Iran and the US, with both sides increasing military deployments in the region. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly announce a significant increase in uranium enrichment levels, followed by US sanctions on Iranian entities involved in nuclear activities. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The talks between US and Iran continue to be stalled, with no concrete agreements reached. This could lead to a continued diplomatic standoff and heightened tensions, but without major escalation. * Confirmation indicators: A statement from the Iranian government expressing their

Tehran could weigh nuclear deal with US with Iran-based enrichment consortium — Axios

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation