Geopolitical··Severity 6
Putin is running out of options
The Russian leader may want to escalate his war — but that is harder than it sounds
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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