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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Putin is running out of options

The Russian leader may want to escalate his war — but that is harder than it sounds

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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