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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Trump threatens tit-for-tat strikes on Iranian infrastructure

US president’s warning marks latest attempts to assert American control over the Strait of Hormuz

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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