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Geopolitical··Severity 6

El Niño Worsens Plight of Asia’s Rice Belt After War Price Shock

A dry spell is sweeping across Asia’s rice fields, dealing another blow to farmers grappling with steep fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the war in Iran.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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