← Scenarios catalogue
Economic··Severity 7

Russia forced to import fuel from India as Ukrainian strikes damage refineries

Shipment underlines crisis facing Moscow after drone attacks cut supplies and led to widespread shortages

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

50%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

Checking access status…