Geopolitical··Severity 6
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The thinking behind our design about Russia’s hybrid war
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
51%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de, escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border., Time horizon: 10 to 30 days.
B
36%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de, escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border., Time horizon: 10 to 30 days.
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de, escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border., Time horizon: 10 to 30 days.
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