Geopolitical··Severity 6
Lithuanian defence minister: Putin needs new victory and is eyeing Baltics and Poland
As Russia is unable to achieve victory in its war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is seeking an alternative path to victory and now views the Baltic region and Poland as its most likely next targets.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
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