Geopolitical··Severity 6
Lukashenko says Belarus will not join Putin’s war in Ukraine
Kyiv feared that Moscow was pressuring its closest ally to support war effort
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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